In short: N.C. Central FCS college football, 2026 season: 3-5 (MEAC). Last game: W 31-12 vs Delaware St. on October 23, 2026. Next: vs Howard, October 31, 2026. Schedule and results, player season stats, stat leaders, unit grades, the CFB Pirate rating and projections.
The battle on the ground could decide N.C. Central's next game, against Howard, and the recent returns favor N.C. Central. N.C. Central averaged 3.5 yards per carry (682 yards on 196 rushes) over its first 5 games (2-3), #93 in FCS in that timeframe. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), the Eagles have averaged 5.7 yards per carry (714 yards on 125 rushes), a 64% rise, #18 in FCS in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: N.C. Central's last 3 opponents have averaged 4.8 yards per carry, a #89 run defense in FCS on the season, against 4.0 yards per carry, #43 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.8 yards per carry), N.C. Central ran for 19% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. Conversely, Howard's run defense has been one of FCS's better units in recent weeks. The Bison have allowed 3.1 yards per carry (254 yards on 83 rushes) over their last 3 games (2-1), #18 in FCS during that time. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of rushing attacks in FCS (3.8 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #82). Against those norms, Howard held those rushing attacks 20% below their usual yards per carry. Something has to give when N.C. Central's surging ground game meets one of FCS's better units in Howard's. Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: N.C. Central's offensive line and Howard's front grade out about even.
The number to watch when N.C. Central meets Howard is N.C. Central's scoring defense. N.C. Central allowed 23.3 points per game over its first 3 games (2-1), #40 in FCS through those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), the Eagles have allowed 30.6 points per game, a 31% rise, #93 in FCS through that stretch. The schedule has a lot to do with it: N.C. Central's last 5 opponents have averaged 24.1 points per game, a #69 offense in FCS on the season, against 20.9 points per game, #93 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (24.1 points per game), N.C. Central allowed 27% more than those offenses usually score. Meanwhile, Howard's offense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Bison have averaged 22.2 points per game over their last 5 games (3-2), #81 in FCS over that stretch. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of scoring defenses in FCS (29.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #74). Against those norms, Howard scored 24% less than those defenses usually allow. Howard offers N.C. Central a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. N.C. Central is 2-1 this season when it holds opponents under 21, and 1-4 when it doesn't.
NOTES
The biggest shift in N.C. Central's season has come in its red-zone offense. N.C. Central scored touchdowns on 40% of its red-zone trips (8 of 20) over its first 4 games (2-2), #103 in FCS within that period. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Eagles have scored touchdowns on 50% of their red-zone trips (4 of 8), a 25% rise, #70 in FCS across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: N.C. Central's last 4 opponents have averaged 56.2%, a #60 red-zone defense in FCS on the season, against 49%, #25 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (56.2%), N.C. Central finished red-zone trips 11% less often than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. On the season, N.C. Central ranks #104 in FCS in red-zone offense. Howard's red-zone defense sits in the middle of the pack, #55 in FCS (55.6%).
N.C. Central's offense from the opening weeks has gone missing since. The Eagles averaged 29.0 points per game over their first 3 games (2-1), #40 in FCS during those games. In the 5 games since that hot start (1-4), N.C. Central has averaged 21.0 points per game, a 28% drop, #93 in FCS during that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: N.C. Central's last 5 opponents have averaged 27.1 points per game, a #62 scoring defense in FCS on the season, against 33.2 points per game, #97 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (27.1 points per game), N.C. Central scored 23% less than those defenses usually allow. N.C. Central was held to 14 points or fewer 2 times in those games, including 9 against East Carolina on 9/26. On the season, the Eagles rank #69 in FCS in scoring. Howard's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #82 in FCS (29.9 points per game). N.C. Central is 2-2 this season when it scores 30 or more, and 1-3 when it doesn't.
Something changed for N.C. Central's run defense after its first 4 games. N.C. Central allowed 4.1 yards per carry (554 yards on 136 rushes) over its first 4 games (2-2), #41 in FCS during that stretch. In the 4 games since that hot start (1-3), the Eagles have allowed 5.0 yards per carry (642 yards on 128 rushes), a 23% rise, #103 in FCS over that period. The schedule has a lot to do with it: N.C. Central's last 4 opponents have averaged 4.4 yards per carry, a #51 rushing attack in FCS on the season, against 3.6 yards per carry, #92 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.4 yards per carry), N.C. Central allowed 13% more per carry than those rushing attacks usually gain. On the season, N.C. Central ranks #77 in FCS in run defense. Howard's ground game sits in the middle of the pack, #96 in FCS (3.5 yards per carry). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: N.C. Central's front and Howard's offensive line grade out about even.
The Eagles averaged 4.7 yards per play (1,442 yards on 310 snaps) over their first 5 games (2-3), #110 in FCS over that timeframe. Few teams started slower in this department, and few have turned it around as sharply since. Over the stretch of 3 games that followed (1-2), N.C. Central has averaged 5.7 yards per play (1,225 yards on 215 snaps), a 22% rise, #51 in FCS over that span. The schedule deserves some of the credit: N.C. Central's last 3 opponents have averaged 6.0 yards per play, a #84 defense in FCS on the season, against 5.4 yards per play, #40 for the first 5. On the season, the Eagles rank #85 in FCS in yards per play. Howard's defense sits in the middle of the pack, #54 in FCS (5.6 yards per play). Up front, CFB Pirate's line ratings call it close: N.C. Central's offensive line and Howard's front grade out about even.
N.C. Central's third-down offense has been money on third down as the season has progressed. N.C. Central converted 35.4% of third downs (17-for-48) over its first 4 games (2-2), #84 in FCS in that timeframe. In the 4 games since that slow start (1-3), the Eagles have converted 42% of third downs (21-for-50), a 19% rise, #44 in FCS in that window. The schedule doesn't explain it: the opponents in both stretches have averaged about 38.4% on the season. Measured against those opponents' norms (39.1%), N.C. Central converted third downs 7% more often than those defenses usually allow. On the season, N.C. Central ranks #58 in FCS in third-down offense. Howard's third-down defense sits in the middle of the pack, #94 in FCS (44%).
SCHEDULE STRENGTH
N.C. Central has played a softer-than-average schedule in the pool so far (#104 of 130), and what is left is a softer-than-average slate (#85 of 129).
Schedule so far · 1 = hardest
#104 of 130
avg opponent rating +6.6 over 9 games · 1 vs top-25 FCS
Schedule ahead · 1 = hardest
#85 of 129
avg opponent rating +7.7 over 4 games · 0 vs top-25
@Texas So… L 30-42Elizabet… W 27-6N.C. A&T W 30-22@Gardner-… L 20-44@East Car… L 9-42Campbell L 31-38William … L 14-17@Delaware… W 31-12@Delaware…Howard@Norfolk …@South Ca…Morgan S…
Each bar is one opponent, placed by where its rating ranks in this pool (tall and red = top 10; short and green = bottom half). Hatched bars are games still to play; the dashed line is today.
Every player with a stat on file, listed only where he has one. Open the arrow beside a name for his game-by-game line. Stats through the Oct 23 game; last updated Oct 25; roster and numbers checked Sep 17.
Click a column heading to sort. MIN hides players below that many attempts.
PPG/OPP PPG use every played game on file. YPG/PLAYS-PER-GAME columns only ever come from games with a full box score on file, which can be a smaller sample than GP -- see the coverage note below when that's the case for this team.
Averages use only games with that number on file. SACKS ALW comes from the opponent's box score; TO FORCED is takeaways; TO MAR is takeaways minus giveaways, and its bottom cell is the season total. Dashes mean not on file.
UNIT INDEX
Pass Offense: grade 46.0/100 (-10 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Offense: grade 50.3/100 (-5 yds/gm vs average)
Pass Defense: grade 43.2/100 (+9 yds/gm vs average)
Rush Defense: grade 42.2/100 (+12 yds/gm vs average)
Unit grades: 0-100 league percentile, adjusted for the opponents faced.
OPPONENT TRACKER
(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)
DATE
SITE
OPPONENT
THEIR RECORD
THEIR PPG
2026-10-24
at
DELAWARE ST.
4-4
22.0
2026-10-31
vs
HOWARD
4-4
20.4
2026-11-07
at
NORFOLK ST.
4-4
31.8
2026-11-14
at
SOUTH CAROLINA ST.
6-2
40.9
2026-11-21
vs
MORGAN ST.
5-3
27.8
LAST YEAR
NC finished 2025 at 8-4. Made the playoffs (2 postseason game(s) on file; exact round/result not available). Notable win: 49-19 over FAYETTEVILLE ST. (FAYETTEVILLE ST. finished 60% that season). Toughest loss: 27-34 to SOUTH CAROLINA ST. (7-point margin).
• [CLUB] N.c. Central has gone 18 straight games forcing 1+ turnover (September 6, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 10-8 over that stretch, a school-record 18 straight in the 15 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] N.c. Central has gone 8 straight games being held under 200 passing yards (August 29, 2026 through October 23, 2026), going 3-5 over that stretch, a school-record 8 straight in the 15 seasons on record.
• [CLUB] N.c. Central is 20-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (20 such games).
• [CLUB] N.c. Central is 13-0 all time when holding the opponent under 100 rushing yards in the games on file (13 such games).
• [CLUB] N.c. Central has gone 11 straight games being held under 7.0 yards per play (November 8, 2025 through October 23, 2026), going 5-6 over that stretch, the program's longest such streak since 2022 (13 games).
• [PLAYER] Joshua Truesdale has 36 tackles over his last 4 games (9.0 a game, September 19, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.
• [PLAYER] Zarion Walters has gone 4 straight games recording a sack, the longest such streak of his career.
• [PLAYER] Zion Dobson has never had a game rushing for 100+ yards for N.c. Central, over a 18-game career on record. His career high is 98, set October 12, 2024 against Virginia-lynchburg (W, 68-0).
• [PLAYER] Mehki Wall has never had a game recording 100+ receiving yards for N.c. Central, over a 25-game career on record. His career high is 88, set November 14, 2025 against South Carolina St. (L, 27-34).
• [PLAYER] Zarion Walters has never had a game making 10 or more tackles for N.c. Central, over a 19-game career on record. His career high is 8, set September 19, 2026 against Gardner-webb (L, 20-44).
• [PLAYER] Chance Peterson has gone 6 straight games without recording 100+ receiving yards. The last time he had 100+ receiving yards was September 5, 2026 against Elizabeth City St. (W, 27-6) — 109 receiving yards.
• N.C. CENTRAL has had a 100-yard rusher in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/23/26). It has not reached 3 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).
• N.C. CENTRAL has rushed for 200+ in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/23/26). It has not rushed for 200+ in 3 straight since 11/15/24–8/23/25 (2025).
• N.C. CENTRAL has gained 400+ total yards in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/23/26). It has not gained 400+ total yards in 3 straight since 9/13/25–11/1/25 (2025). It has reached 3 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 6 straight (2025) in that span.
• N.C. CENTRAL has forced 2+ turnovers in 2 straight games (10/10/26–10/23/26). It has not forced 2+ turnovers in 3 straight since 11/8/25–9/12/26 (2026). It has reached 3 straight 3 times in the last 4 years and has reached a high of 6 straight (2026) in that span.
NC's defense has averaged 2.3 takeaways per game over their last 7 games. Their 67-game average is 1.6 takeaways per game. (+46%)
NC's defense has averaged 157.3 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 67-game average is 210.6 pass yards per game. (-25%)
NC's defense has averaged 22.3 points allowed per game over their last 3 games. Their 67-game average is 29.2 points allowed per game. (-24%)
NC's defense has averaged 131.0 rush yards per game over their last 15 games. Their 67-game average is 165.9 rush yards per game. (-21%)
(moved to the Appendix, Data Export 1, to keep this section shorter -- the full spreadsheet-paste table is there unchanged)
APPENDIX
Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.
Explanatory Notes
Note 1 -- SEASON OUTLOOK
Every remaining game is projected from schedule-adjusted ratings; already-played games carry their real result. Records are simulated distributions, not a single guess -- MOST LIKELY FINAL is the single most probable record and its own probability, PROJECTED RECORD is the season's expected win total expressed in record form (an average across every simulated outcome, so it can land on a fraction of a game).
Note 2 -- OPPONENT TRACKER -- why some cards have no record shown
Only meaningful for an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team in the library -- an opponent with no games on file here at all shows the date and site alone.
Note 3 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored
Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.
Full Data Exports
Data Export 1 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)
Where N.C. CENTRAL sits among 130 FCS teams on the two Unit Index composites -- Offense Grade 48.1, Defense Grade 42.7.
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME: N.C. CENTRAL VS THE FCS
N.C. CENTRAL ranks #9 of 130 FCS teams in turnover margin per game (0.88) -- a strength worth a look.
N.C. CENTRAL: SP STRENGTH INDEX BY SEASON
The program's index across 4 seasons on file -- -3.0 in 2022 to 3.0 in 2025.
These graphs were chosen by the program from this season's most notable numbers. Build your own -- any stat against any other, for any mix of teams, seasons or players, with a JPEG download -- in the Graph Builder.
1.98 points per offensive possession (119 possessions on file, 2026)
Late & close (4th quarter or later, within one score): 32.2% success rate, 10.2% explosive play rate (59 snaps)
Down & Distance
Plays
Play-Type Mix
1 & short
6
rush 100%
1 & medium
7
rush 86%, pass 14%
1 & long
243
rush 61%, pass 34%, sack 5%
2 & short
29
rush 66%, pass 24%, sack 10%
2 & medium
49
rush 61%, pass 37%, sack 2%
2 & long
116
pass 53%, rush 46%, sack 2%
3 & short
25
rush 88%, pass 12%
3 & medium
38
rush 45%, pass 42%, sack 13%
3 & long
60
pass 53%, rush 35%, sack 12%
4 & short
6
rush 83%, pass 17%
4 & medium
3
rush 67%, pass 33%
4 & long
4
rush 50%, pass 25%, sack 25%
GARBAGE TIME PROFILE
4 of 8 games on file this season hit garbage time
Average margin: -3.9 final vs. -3.0 before garbage time — this team gets padded on (-0.9 pts/game)
Biggest swing: 7 points, vs. Gardner-Webb on 2026-09-19 (-24 final, -17 real)
See the Garbage Time Reality Check page for the full leaderboard. This is informational only — it never changes this team's ranking or projection elsewhere on the site.
ADVANCED PLAYER STATS
NELSON LAYNE (QB): +0.10 EPA/dropback, 38.0% success rate, 92 dropbacks
Expected Points Added, averaged over every dropback (pass attempt or sack) that has a value on file. Positive means the play typically moved the team closer to scoring more than an average play in that situation would; negative means it cost expected points.
Inputs: Each play's EPA (from CFBD's own model for most FBS/FCS plays, or this project's own trained model for a smaller share of other games) averaged over the QB's dropbacks. The dropback count with an EPA value on file (not every play has one) is always shown alongside the rate, and boards require at least 20 such plays before a QB qualifies -- a thin sample was found live to distort rankings otherwise.
Passing Success Rate
The share of dropbacks that were 'successful' by a standard down-based yardstick, regardless of whether EPA is available for that play.
Inputs: Gained at least 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or the full distance (or a touchdown) on 3rd/4th -- computed from down, distance, yards gained and touchdown, all structured fields.
Rushing Success Rate
The same down-based success standard as passing success rate, applied to a player's carries.
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the ball carrier.
Receiving Success Rate
The same down-based success standard, applied to a player's targets (thrown to him, complete or not).
Inputs: Down, distance, yards gained and touchdown on plays where this player was the targeted receiver.
3rd Down Splits
How a player performed specifically on 3rd down plays this season -- success rate, touchdown rate, and the underlying counting stats, isolated from every other down.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 3 and this player was involved (passer, rusher, receiver, or a tackle/sack/INT/fumble recovery on defense).
4th Down Splits
The same idea as 3rd Down Splits, isolated to 4th down plays -- the highest-leverage down in football.
Inputs: Every play on file where down = 4 and this player was involved.
Red Zone Splits
How a player performed once his team's offense (or the opponent's, for a defender) reached inside the 20-yard line.
Inputs: Every play on file within 20 yards of the goal line (`distance_to_goal <= 20`) this player was involved in. COVERAGE CAVEAT: true field position is only recorded for about a third of plays leaguewide, concentrated in FBS/FCS games -- a player whose games come from a source without it will show thin or missing red-zone splits even if he played plenty of red-zone snaps. This is a gap in the underlying play-by-play data, not a sign he didn't play there.
Final 2 Minutes of a Half
How a player performed in the last two minutes of either half -- the clock-management, high-pressure stretch at the end of the 2nd and 4th quarters.
Inputs: Every play on file in the 2nd or 4th quarter with 2:00 or less on the clock this player was involved in. Same field-position/clock coverage caveat as Red Zone Splits above -- roughly a third of plays leaguewide carry a usable clock reading, concentrated in FBS/FCS games.
What is "garbage time"?
A 7-tier rule (bigger lead required as the clock runs down) that flags plays happening in a game that is no longer competitive -- e.g. a 30+ point lead right after halftime, or a 12+ point lead inside the final 3 minutes.
Inputs: Quarter, game clock, and the score of both teams at the time of the play. Garbage-time plays are not thrown out -- they count for 35% of a normal play in every "garbage-time-adjusted" figure, so a player who pads stats once a game is decided shows up as such rather than being invisible.
Report Produced by ScorePirate | Commitment and offer data sourced from 247Sports | GENERATED
10/31/2026 11:00
